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Not in his wildest nightmares could Humza Yousaf have imagined that his future as SNP leader and Scotland’s First Minister would depend on Alex Salmond and his team.
When Mr Yousaf took over from Nicola Sturgeon a year ago, Mr Salmond was a diminished force and his breakaway nationalist party did not have a single MSP at Holyrood.
But the SNP leader’s fate as First Minister now appears to depend on the crucial vote of Ash Regan, a former leadership rival who defected to Mr Salmond’s Alba Party in October.
The no-confidence vote he faces at the Scottish Parliament, expected to take place on Wednesday or Thursday next week, has left his team in “panic” mode, Holyrood sources told i.
Mr Yousaf insisted that he was not going to resign and would “fight” the votes put forward by opposition parties. “I’ve got every intention of winning that vote of no confidence,” he told reporters.
But the SNP is now divided on whether to listen to Alba’s demands in return for Ms Regan’s vote, or to try to talk to the Scottish Greens – who appear determined to see Mr Yousaf booted out as First Minister.
Mr Yousaf’s dramatic decision on Thursday to end the coalition agreement with the Greens and lead a minority government quickly unravelled when his furious former partners said they would back a motion of no-confidence in him personally.
Scottish Labour raised the stakes even higher on Friday when leader Anas Sarwar laid an even stronger no-confidence motion – one in the Scottish Government itself.
The move, backed by the Conservatives and Liberal Democrats, would automatically force Mr Yousaf to resign as First Minister and give the SNP 28 days to find a successor or face a new Holyrood election.
If the Greens go against Mr Yousaf, the arithmetic at Holyrood means that Ms Regan – whom Mr Yousaf had said was “no great loss” when she quit the SNP – will essentially have the deciding vote on his future.
Greens co-leader Patrick Harvie would not say whether his party would back Scottish Labour’s stronger, binding motion that would force Mr Yousaf out if he loses.
MSPs in the left-wing party are undecided on whether they can vote for a motion against the Scottish Government itself, which they were part of until Thursday morning. But they remain furious at Mr Yousaf and want the SNP to find a new leader.
A Scottish Greens’ source told i there was “too much panic and chaos surrounding the SNP” to decide yet on Labour’s motion. They added: “It looks like we’re in the last throes of his time as First Minister – he’s holed below the water line. We want to see him go.”
SNP MPs and MSPs, having backed his decision to ditch the Greens, are torn on what Mr Yousaf should do next. Centre-ground traditionalists think he must reach out to Ms Regan.
A SNP source told i: “It’s sensible to talk to Alba. There’s no point in going back to the Greens. The whole point of what he did was to draw a line under the Green nonsense and get back to sensible policies.
“If he survives [a no-confidence vote] he can still unify the party and carry on. What happens after the general election is a different matter.”
SNP MSP Michelle Thomson – a backer of former leadership contender Kate Forbes – told the BBC that the Alba Party had “a very strong position in the vote of no confidence”.
But some on the SNP left suggested that Mr Yousaf should ignore Alba and try to reach out to the Greens. Influential SNP councillor Marco Biagi, a former minister, warned that Alba “won’t back Humza”.
He wrote on X that the smaller nationalist party was “consumed by rage at the Sturgeon era”. Mr Biagi added: “Taking out Humza is, for them, like landing one on her.”
Asked if he would work with Alba and Ms Regan, Mr Yousaf told reporters that he will be writing to all leaders, inviting them to a meeting in an attempt to “make minority government work”.
But in an olive branch to the Greens, the SNP leader appeared to express some regret about the fall-out from his abrupt tearing up of the coalition agreement.
“I’ve heard their upset, their anger, and I understand it. I didn’t mean, didn’t intend, to make them as angry as they clearly are,” Mr Yousaf told reporters on a visit to Dundee to announce an extra £80 million for affordable housing.
Mr Salmond’s party wants to hear from Mr Yousaf that the SNP is willing to get into talks on specific policies in the days ahead.
i understands that Alba would not need written agreement with the SNP, but clear assurances on the direction of travel under Mr Yousaf’s minority government.
Alba’s general secretary Chris McEleny said: “His job is on the line, so he is going to have to reach out. We’re well-positioned – we’re right at the centre of the future of Humza Yousaf’s tenure as First Minister.”
Ms Regan wants Mr Yousaf to commit to a referendum on extra powers so Holyrood has the right to demand Scottish independence negotiations with the UK Government.
She also wants assurances on women’s rights, following her bitter exit over blocked SNP-Green plans to make it easier for people to change their legally-recognised gender. The Alba MSP said an agreement to invest in the under-threat Grangemouth oil refinery would also be a “sign of good faith”.
Green co-leader Patrick Harvie said it is “pretty clear” Mr Yousaf could not continue much longer, as he urged the SNP to consider replacing him.
Asked whether there is anything Mr Yousaf could now say to get the Greens back on side, Mr Harvie said it would be “very difficult” following the breakdown in trust.
Scottish Labour leader Anas Sarwar said Mr Yousaf’s position was “untenable” ahead of the no-confidence vote next week. “It’s a matter now of when, not if, Humza Yousaf will step down as First Minister.”
Scottish Tory leader Douglas Ross confirmed his party would support the Labour-led motion of no confidence in the SNP government. But he wants his own party’s motion on Mr Yousaf heard first. “We have an opportunity next week to end his time in office,” he said.
Liz Lloyd, former chief of staff to Nicola Sturgeon, told the BBC that Mr Yousaf had “miscalculated” by ending the coalition deal with the Greens so suddenly – rather than mutually agree to draw a line under the pact.
Stuart Nicolson, another former senior adviser to Ms Sturgeon, also told the BBC that “the way things unravelled clearly wasn’t in the playbook”.
