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On his flight out to Poland this week to announce a major increase in defence spending, Rishi Sunak cut a relaxed figure.
The famously sweet-toothed Prime Minister handed out patriotic St George’s Day cupcakes as he the chatted with journalists.
The fact that the saint’s day, and its story of good defeating evil, came as the UK’s cash uplift for defence in the face of an ever hostile Russia was revealed, was not lost on Mr Sunak.
The PM was making his first international visit in months taking in both Warsaw, and Berlin where he unveiled a £75bn uplift in cash for defence and a hefty funding package for Ukraine to counter the threat posed from Vladimir Putin.
He appears more at ease on an international stage that can offer welcome respite from the domestic pressure he is facing. This week’s big reveal was considered a political coup for Mr Sunak at home and abroad.
Sources close to the leader said the Government’s defence spending announcement, which will see funding rise to 2.5 per cent of GDP by 2030, and a multi-year funding settlement for Ukraine, was a “long time in the making”.
Its timing, coinciding with the US passing its own military funding package for Ukraine, all sought to emphasise a narrative that the UK is reclaiming its place as a major leader in Europe when it comes to defence and influence, insiders said.
It capped what has been seen as a successful week for No10, coming quick on the heels of a big welfare policy intervention and the long-awaited passing of the Rwanda Bill. But senior Downing Street figures say it is too early to know whether any of these will improve the Conservative government’s electoral fortunes.
Mr Sunak is not dwelling on the constant stream of negative polling, sources say, but is instead pouring his energy into focusing on the factors he can control.
But unlike St George, who found fame by slaying a single dragon, the Prime Minister must overcome several adversaries if he is to emerge victorious after the next general election. And his latest existential threat comes next week when voters go to the polls in the local elections and he hits a new moment of maximum danger.
Plotters within the Tories have earmarked next Thursday as “May Day from Hell”, as they seek to use what is widely expected to be a drubbing at the ballot box as a fresh opportunity to oust Mr Sunak.
While there are significant doubts about the seriousness of a challenge, there are also fears that a “bloodbath” at the locals – one in which the Conservatives lose all mayoral elections, including their incumbents in the West Midlands and Tees Valley – could lead to a bid to topple Mr Sunak in the coming weeks.
As one backbencher told i: “If the elections are a complete disaster and the mayoral ones are really bad then it [a leadership challenge] is not beyond the realms of possibility.”
According to those close to the Prime Minister, he is primarily focused on the result of the mayoral election in Teeside, which he considers particularly important given the number of swing “red wall” seats in the region.
Sources said he hopes the level of investment the Government has poured into the area, through policies such as levelling up funding and the new freeport, could be enough to convince some of the 2019 Tory voters not to abandon the party.
But there is acknowledgment inside No10 that the elections will be “particularly tough” – not least because they will be measured against the previous set of results when the Conservatives enjoyed a vaccine boost.
In a sign of the level of concern about next week’s results, ministers were once again forced to circle the wagons around Mr Sunak, with Home Secretary James Cleverly warning the rebels that a leadership race before the general election, however short, would be a “catastrophically bad idea”.
One Tory aide insisted that the sniping only backfires against the plotters. “When Robert Jenrick goes out and criticises 14 years of Tory failures on immigration, he just alienates most of the Tory MPs he wants to support him in the next leadership election,” the source said.
A realistic outcome is that the Conservatives will hold on to Tees Valley, if not West Midlands, and could come closer than expected in London, despite widespread misgivings about their candidate Susan Hall.
Such a result would likely mean Mr Sunak will be safe from any rebel plot, but it is unlikely to bring an end to calls for change from the Prime Minister in how he is approaching the election.
One MP said that were backbenchers hoping “that in time we will just ‘do politics better’.”
“We need some personnel change to get into election mode and have everybody pushing in the same direction,” the Tory added.
In particular, some MPs want Mr Sunak to remove James Forsyth – his old school friend and best man at his wedding – from his role as political secretary. They view him as aloof and blame him for repeated missteps in recent months.
“He’s not perceived as being the best,” one MP said.
Doubts over the Downing Street operation have led to calls for the Prime Minister to finally fire the starting gun on the general election campaign. Speculation has been swirling that Mr Sunak could set a date as soon as Monday, in a bid to put an end to the leadership challenge rumours and overshadow any local election difficulties.
One former minister believes an autumn date would allow time for voters to see that “things are improving”.
“I think we’ve started to see a real difference, materially,” the MP said. “In numbers, maybe not, but the perception of how things are going is a big deal. When we suddenly see cuts to interest rates that’ll change things.”
But this is not a view widely shared, as one former Tory special adviser, who recently left to join the private sector, put it: “I don’t buy the interest rates stuff. I don’t know what we’re waiting for. And it’s not just the money in people’s pockets. You can’t get a doctor’s appointment. Schools are terrible. People can’t see it getting better.”
Another Tory source was more blunt. “It’s going to be wipe-out territory. We’re f**ked. They’re going to win. We’re just going to have to accept that.”
But for some Conservatives there is a plus side of hitting rock bottom. “The thing is, it can’t get any worse than it is now in the polls,” one Tory aide said. “And things might get better.”
