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As things stand the real winner of this fight on the right will be Keir Starmer
April 20, 2024 6:00 am(Updated 6:02 am)
On Tuesday night, there was a sight that would alarm Conservative strategists: Reform and Tory politicians talking. In the boardroom of The Spectator, Westminster gathered for the launch of Liz Truss’ new book. As one attendee put it on arrival: ‘There are almost as many Reform politicians as Tories’. Among those who turned up to raise a glass to the former prime minister were Lee Anderson, the MP who recently defected from the Tories to Reform as well as the party’s current leader Richard Tice. Also present was Nigel Farage ally Andy Wigmore.
The official line from both Reform and the Tories is that there will be no non-aggression pact with one another. Tice has said he actively wants to destroy the Tories. Meanwhile, the Conservative line is that a vote for Reform is a vote for Starmer. But as the local elections approach – and rumours of a potential summer election refuse to go away – expect this line to be tested. Truss said this week that Anderson should never have lost the Tory whip and that Nigel Farage should be welcomed into the Conservative fold. Last week, Anderson made his own unofficial pact – naming four Tory MPs (his friends) who won their seat in 2019 who he will not campaign against. Some Tory MPs would like Anderson to spread that show of solidarity more widely to all Tory MPs in the “Red Wall”. As one concerned Conservative MP puts it: “We agree on more than we disagree on but together we’re just helping Labour. It doesn’t make sense.”
Next month’s local elections could add to nerves. Sunak critics are already trying to say the local election result will be better for the Tories than the general election as the representation of Reform is limited. The party is only standing candidates in 15 per cent of seats and offer no serious threat in Tees Valley where Tory metro Mayor Ben Houchen is looking for a third term.
However, the Blackpool by-election (held on the same day) and mayoral race in the West Midlands could be more telling. Sparked by the resignation of Tory MP Scott Benton, it is not one the Tories believe they have a chance of holding, with a majority of around 3,000. However, it is the type of seat Reform ought to be doing well in on current polling.
What’s more, Andy Street’s bid to win a third term as the Tory metro mayor in the West Midlands could be decided by Reform. This week, there were two polls of the mayoralty race. One – by Redfield and Wilton – had Street losing by over ten points. The other – by Savanta – has Street narrowly holding on. The difference? How Reform does.
More far-reaching questions are being asked about where this leads in the medium term. Some in the Tory party believe a bad defeat could be required to convince MPs it needs the shock therapy treatment of a jolt to the right. The rhetoric from some in Reform is that the Tories must be burned down in order to make space for a new party.
The example they use is the Canada wipe out in 1993. In what was a catastrophic night for the then government, the Progressive Conservative party lost all; but 2 of their 156 seats and over half of their vote from the previous election. Its nightmare was contributed to by another party called Reform. The Canadian Reform party won over former conservative voters – with a particular appeal to the socially conservative. It won 52 seats marking a major breakthrough and the beginnings of a realignment for the right.
Figures in Reform UK see this as a blue print. There’s talk of 2026 as when things start to really move in their favour and the election after this one being the most important. The thinking goes that the party needs to make inroads in this year’s general election through vote share – even if few expect this to amount to much in the way of parliamentary seats. Then having significantly diminished the Tory party by eating into their vote, Reform could wait for Labour to face the troubles of government and ride in as the go-to party for those who have had enough of the two party system. Reform figures argue that a Labour government will be no better than the Tories at stopping the boats or dealing with legal migration. Therefore, voters will eventually turn on Labour too.
But these things take time. In that Canadian election, it was the centre-left Liberals who won the landslide – and it stayed that way for some time. It did not herald a quick come back for the right. The progressive conservatives disappeared for good but what followed was nearly 13 years of the left being in power. And it took 18 years for a reunited right to form a majority government. Were that to be repeated in the UK it would mean the losing power until 2037 – with no majority until 2043.
Of course it’s impossible to predict what exactly will happen from history – but it does at least point to the practical problems anyone trying to realign the right will encounter. Already, Reform is facing issues on candidate selection – having to axe some candidates for past comments dug out by the media and even apologising when they sacked a general election candidate for being “inactive” – the reason being they had passed away. There’s also a question as to whether they have the ground game to capitalise on support in an election.
It is ultimately easier to tear things down than to build. The current trajectory risks putting the right out of power for over a decade. It’s one of the reasons why the penny is beginning to drop for some in both parties that as things stand the real winner of this fight on the right will be Keir Starmer.
Katy Balls is political editor at The Spectator. She writes a fortnightly column for i on Westminster politics
