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According to research published by The Lancet in March, Australia’s fertility rate – the number of children a woman can be expected to have in her lifetime – will drop from around 1.63 to 1.45 by 2050 and to 1.32 by 2100. The replacement fertility rate for a population is 2.1.
Chalmers said while he understood the now abandoned baby bonus of the Howard-Costello government, the government believed there were better policies that gave people more choices about their family plans.
He said the government’s policies in areas such as expanded childcare or superannuation on paid parental leave were all aimed at helping parents.
“All of these things are about trying to make it easier for people to have more kids if they want to, and to work more if they want to after they’ve had their kids,” he said.
“People have got different preferences and we want to make it easier for them to make choices in their own interests.”
Chalmers said supplying enough houses for a growing population will be a key issue in next week’s budget.
“That’s because we don’t have enough homes, we need to build more homes for more people, and that requires a bunch of things,” he said.
“It requires more Commonwealth investment, we will do our bit. It requires the states and territories to do their bit, and I’m confident that they will.”
National cabinet will meet on Friday to discuss more financial support to build houses across the country.Credit: Dan Peled
Chalmers said that meant the federal government would spend more on housing over time, saying: “We will do our bit, and we will fund our bit.”
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Prime Minister Anthony Albanese has called a national cabinet meeting on Friday to canvass housing policy in a video conference ahead of the budget, raising speculation about new measures and funding deals.
“I don’t want to pre-empt it, but I am prepared to say that we want to work with the states and territories to build more homes,” he said.
“You think about the pressures on rent, how hard it is for people to get into the housing market – we’ve got a responsibility here, and we will meet it.”
The housing policies come as the government admits the pressures in major cities from the influx of overseas students and other migrants.
“What you’ll see in the budget forecast is that net overseas migration next year will be about half what it was last year,” Chalmers said.
The Treasurer said this reflected a fall from the big spike in student numbers last year as well as a shift in tourism after the pandemic, as well as the work by Home Affairs Minister Clare O’Neil to reduce the intake.
The budget forecasts are tipped to show a fall in the net migration intake from 518,000 last financial year to 395,000 in the current financial year.
The revised forecast will show a fall to 260,000 the subsequent year before the intake returns to about 235,000, in line with the annual intake before the pandemic.
Next week’s budget will also upgrade the outlook for the economy, with business investment expected to grow by one per cent in the coming financial year after lifting by 5.25 per cent in 2023-24.
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By 2025-26, business investment is tipped to reach $305.7 billion.
If the forecasts prove correct, investment will have climbed for six consecutive years, the longest sustained increase since the early 2000s mining boom. But unlike that period, investment will be driven by non-mining parts of the economy.
The budget will confirm the pressures on the nation’s finances, with it to contain $27.9 billion in savings or reprioritisation of funding. The single largest change, worth $22.5 billion, will be forced on the Defence Department as part of the government’s overhaul of spending across the armed forces.
Chalmers, who is on track to deliver a second successive surplus, has already signalled there will be deficits from 2024-25.
The budget will contain $15.4 billion in “unavoidable” spending to extend programs that were due to end. These include palliative care, cancer support, alcohol and other drug treatment programs.
There will be extra funding for IT covering the aged care system and myGov, fitting-out the new Western Sydney International Airport and for the Home Affairs Department.
Listen to the full interview with Treasurer Jim Chalmers, discussing cost of living relief, housing ambitions and the Future Made in Australia on the Inside Politics podcast.
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