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The Conservatives may perform better in the general election if MPs oust Rishi Sunak and replace him as leader, an exclusive poll for i suggests.
The BMG research survey suggests voters who backed the Tories in 2019, but have drifted away amid scandal and chaos, would be more likely to vote for the party under a different leader.
It risks igniting what leadership plotters are calling a “May Day from Hell” facing the Prime Minister after a likely drubbing in Thursday’s local elections.
The polling showed Mr Sunak performs better than any other potential leader among the wider public other than Boris Johnson, who is not a leadership candidate after quitting as an MP.
But voters who supported the Tories’ election victory in 2019 and have since deserted the party would prefer a number of other candidates, the poll suggests.
Only 14 per cent of these voters said they would be more likely to vote Tory if Mr Sunak was leader.
This compares with 34 per cent who said Suella Braverman could sway their vote towards the Tories, 29 per cent for Penny Mordaunt and 25 per cent for Priti Patel and 22 per cent for Kemi Badenoch – with all four women seen as leading leadership candidates.
Mr Johnson was backed even further (45 per cent) while ex-leader Lord Cameron (20 per cent) had more support than Mr Sunak, but has ruled himself out.
The findings could fuel rebel plotting against Mr Sunak in the aftermath of the local elections, with headline figures showing Labour still enjoys a substantial 16-point lead on 41 per cent (-2) to the Tories 25 per cent on who the public would back in a general election.
One source close to the rebels told i the survey suggested “Rishi is seen as weak” and revealed a path to win back some of the Tories’ 2019 voters who have drifted to Reform, which was unchanged on 14 per cent.
There was however some comfort for the Prime Minister as among the wider public, 30 per cent of all voters said they were more likely to vote for the Tories under Mr Sunak compared to 64 per cent who said they were more unlikely, giving him a net score of -34 per cent.
This was better than any other candidate apart from Mr Johnson (-32) and Ms Mordaunt (also -34), although name recognition often favours the incumbent on this question.
Voters who are currently backing the Tories overwhelmingly said they were more likely to vote for the party under Mr Sunak (88 per cent) than any other candidate.
But BMG Research’s head of polling Robert Struthers suggested this group was almost certain to continue backing the Tories under a different leader, as they had stuck with the party at its lowest ebb.
Therefore, the figures showing ex-2019 Tory voters would prefer another leader might fuel arguments that it is “worth gambling with a change”, despite being “inconclusive”.
Mr Struthers told i: “There’s a relatively small number of people now who are saying they will vote Conservative compared to 2019, and those that are sticking with them are all understandably the most comfortable with the existing leader because things have got really bad for the Tories, but they are still standing by and saying they are going to vote Conservative.
“But if the party were to switch leader, say to Boris Johnson or Penny Mordaunt, would they really then abandon the party given they have stuck it out so much already? Or are we really looking at voters who may quite like Rishi Sunak, but really they are always going to vote Tory anyway?”
Asked whether the findings would bolster the case for those wanting to change leader, he went on: “I think it does.
“Ultimately, you can make the case that Rishi Sunak is relatively popular or commands support at least among people who are currently voting Tory, but that’s not good enough to come back or have any decent number of seats for the Conservatives, they are still going to lose massively, and there’s not any evidence that Rishi Sunak is going to broaden his appeal with those who have left the party since 2019.
“So some may say it’s worth gambling with a change.”
Mr Struthers added that across the different measures, Mr Johnson and Ms Mordaunt appeared the best placed alternative candidates.
Mr Johnson enjoys “continued resonance with the sizable contingent of 2019 Conservative voters who now say they no longer intend to vote for the party”, while public perception of his tenure has seen a “slight revival since last summer”, while he also may be seen as a more legitimate leader “given his mandate in 2019”.
“Nonetheless, Boris Johnson’s appeal isn’t markedly broader than that of Mr Sunak,” Mr Struthers said.
“So he is no silver bullet, and in polling terms, a shadow of the more widely admired London mayor and promising leadership figure he was a decade ago.”
Mr Struthers added: “The other interesting candidate would be Penny Mordaunt.
“Though lesser known, she scores well compared to her peers and shows strength among both current Conservative supporters and those who voted Conservative in 2019 but not longer intend to vote for them now.
“Of the candidates polled who have not already been Prime Minister, she has the most obvious electoral appeal.”
Elsewhere, half (53 per cent) of voters think the Tories should be allowed to replace Mr Sunak as Prime Minister, but are divided over whether this should trigger an immediate election (35 per cent) or whether a poll can wait (28 per cent).
:: BMG Research interviewed a representative sample of 1,500 GB adults online between 22nd and 23rd April. BMG are members of the British Polling Council and abide by their rules.
